The Non-Linear Relationship between the Number of Permanent Residents and the Willingness of Rural Residential Land Transfer: The Threshold Effect of per Capita Net Income

Promoting the transfer of rural residential land is paramount in enhancing the efficiency of its utilization. The willingness of farmers to transfer rural residential land is influenced by the number of permanent residents. Existing research has drawn different conclusions about the relationship between these two factors, but the differences have not been analyzed. This study is based on survey data collected from our field research in Deqing County, Zhejiang Province, and utilizes the Probit model and threshold effect model to investigate the role of per capita net income in the relationship between the number of permanent residents and the willingness to transfer rural residential land. The results indicate: (1) There is a non-linear impact of the number of permanent residents on the willingness of farmers who are willing to live in rural areas to transfer to their rural residential land with an income threshold. There is a non-linear impact of the number of permanent residents on the willingness of farmers who are willing to live in city areas to transfer out of their rural residential land, with two income thresholds. By comparing with the actual situation, the size and order of the thresholds are scientifically established. (2) The transfer of rural residential land can serve as a supplementary solution to individual household applications for rural residential land, addressing China’s historical legacy issues concerning rural residential land. Considering these findings, policymakers should first actively promote the reform of the rural residential land system while ensuring safeguards for farmers and then work to increase the value of rural residential land. Additionally, they should implement differentiated policies to promote rural residential land transfer. This study can provide a valuable reference for effectively revitalizing idle rural residential land.