Modelling Multi-Scenario Ecological Network Patterns and Dynamic Spatial Conservation Priorities in Mining Areas

Mining activities have significantly altered the land use patterns of mining areas, exacerbated the degree of landscape fragmentation, and thereby led to the loss of biodiversity. Ecological networks have been recognized as an essential component for enhancing habitat connectivity and protecting biodiversity. However, existing studies lack dynamic analysis at the landscape scale under multiple future scenarios for mining areas, which is adverse to the identification of ecological conservation regions. This study used the MOP-PLUS (multi-objective optimization problem and patch-level land use simulation) model to simulate the land use patterns in the balance of ecology and economy (EEB) scenario and ecological development priority (EDP) scenario for the Shendong coal base. Then, climate change and land use patterns were integrated into ecosystem models to analyze the dynamic changes in the ecological networks. Finally, the conservation priorities were constructed, and dynamic conservation hotspots were identified using landscape mapping methods. The following results were obtained: (1) From 2000 to 2020, large grassland areas were replaced by mining areas, while cultivated land was replenished. By 2030, the forest and grassland areas (967.00 km², 8989.70 km²) will reach their peaks and the coal mine area (356.15 km²) will reach its nadir in the EDP scenario. (2) The fragmentation of ecological sources intensified (MPS decreased from 19.81 km² to 18.68 km²) and ecological connectivity declined (in particular, <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi>α</mi></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> decreased by 6.58%) from 2000 to 2020. In 2030, the connectivity in the EDP scenario will increase, while the connectivity in the EEB scenario will be close to that of 2020. (3) The central and southeastern parts of the Shendong coal base have higher conservation priorities, which urgently need to be strengthened. This study offers guidance on addressing the challenges of habitat and biodiversity conservation in mining areas.