The Spatial-Temporal Patterns and Driving Mechanisms of the Ecological Barrier Transition Zone in the Western Jilin, China

Land use change monitoring is a common theme in achieving sustainable development, while research on ecological barrier transition zones is relatively scarce. This study quantitatively analyzes the characteristics and patterns of land use change in Western Jilin, located in the transitional zone between the northeast forest belt and the northern sand prevention belt, from 1990 to 2020. Land dynamic change index and transition matrix are used to quantify the rates and intensities, and conversions between different land use types over time, respectively. Geodetector is adopted to analyze the impact of 12 factors on 12 types of land use change, such as using the factor detector to quantify the influence of temperature on the conversion from cropland to unused land. The results indicate that from 1990 to 2020, there have been noticeable changes in the area of various land use types in western Jilin. However, the conversion types are relatively limited, mainly involving interchanges between cropland, grassland, unused land, and water bodies. The cropland has increased by 20% overall, but 16% of that increase occurred from 1990–2000. The woodland area has steadily increased at a growth rate of 5–8% from 2000–2020, aligning with sustainable development strategies. Water bodies and grasslands are undergoing continuous recovery, and a positive growth trend is predicted to emerge by 2030. The built-up land is steadily expanding. The influencing factors vary for different types of land-use change. In a short time, policy factors play a significant role in land use, such as the implementation of the “River-lake Connection Project”, which has helped to reduce water-body fragmentation and enabled the stable recovery of water resources. However, in the long term, multiple topographic, climatic, and anthropogenic factors exhibit interactive effects in the land use change process in the area. Governments can take corresponding measures and management policies based on the influence of these factors to allocate and plan land use rationally.