Impacts of climate change on the first occurrence of the Light blight (Phytophthora infestans (Mont.) de Bary 1876)
2008
Zdeněk Žalud | M. Trnka | M. Dubrovský | E. Kocmánková
The increase in the infestation pressure of various pathogens will be one the most important factors limiting the crop production under the future climate conditions. Weather driven NegFry model has been used for estimating future Phytophthora infestans occurrence at four experimental potato stations of the State Institute for Agriculture Supervision and Testing. Both the infestation dates of Phytophthora infestans occurrence and the shape of the critical number curve were analyzed using observed weather data as well as datasets constructed according to four climate change scenarios that were based on two global circulation models. The results show the shift of the infestation pressure to the beginning of the year and describe increasing trend of critical number reaching to detecting of the first Phytophthora infestans occurrence for 2025 and 2050. Scenarios created according to HadCM and SRES – A2 seem to be more suitable for disease development.
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