Network modelling is strictly required for predicting climate change impacts on biodiversity
Alessandro Ferrarini
Robust models are pivotal to the prediction of future climate change impacts on biodiversity. A move must be made away from individualistic models of single species toward the implication of synergistically interacting species. The focus should be on the indirect effects due to biotic interactions. Thanks to these kinds of models, counterintuitive results for species could be achieved, emerging from complex biotic feedbacks involving that species-specific expectations are not of necessity consistent with those of their community. In this paper, the proposed approaches can tackle some important limitations of commonly-used individualistic models, as they can: a) deal with an optionally large number of species, b) take into account biotic interactions, c) forecast indirect effects caused by climate change.
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