Predicting the effects of climate change on the latency period of wheat leaf rust in western Poland
2017
Andrzej Wójtowicz | Marek Wójtowicz | Roland Sigvald | Maria Pasternak
Leaf rust caused by Puccinia recondita f. sp. tritici belongs to the most important diseases of wheat worldwide. The progress of the disease is highly dependent on meteorological conditions. One of the parameters affecting the disease progress is latency period driven mostly by temperature. Examination of the influence of predicted temperature changes on the monthly sum of the daily latency period expressed as rate (MSLPR) in western Poland was the aim of our study. Experiments in quasi-natural conditions were performed with the aim of validating models describing the influence of temperature on leaf rust latency period in two wheat varieties, Turnia and Ostroga. Both models used for assessment of latency period duration on cv. Turnia and cv. Ostroga performed well. The influence of climate changes on leaf rust latency period was then simulated using meteorological data from three weather stations located in western Poland and virtual data obtained after transformation of the recorded data to reflect a temperature changes under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios according to giss_e2_r climate model. The study shows that without mitigation of greenhouse gas emission latency period of wheat leaf rust is going to decrease which may result in increase of wheat leaf rust incidence.
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