Eliminating bovine tuberculosis in cattle and badgers: insight from a dynamic model.

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is a multi-species infection that commonly affects cattle and badgers in Great Britain. Despite years of study, the impact of badgers on BTB incidence in cattle is poorly understood. Using a two-host transmission model of BTB in cattle and badgers, we find that published data and parameter estimates are most consistent with a system at the threshold of control. The most consistent explanation for data obtained from cattle and badger populations includes within-host reproduction numbers close to 1 and between-host reproduction numbers of approximately 0.05. In terms of controlling infection in cattle, reducing cattle-to-cattle transmission is essential. In some regions, even large reductions in badger prevalence can have a modest impact on cattle infection and a multi-stranded approach is necessary that also targets badger-to-cattle transmission directly. The new perspective highlighted by this two-host approach provides insight into the control of BTB in Great Britain.

The work and E.B.-P.’s fellowship was funded by the EPSRC (EP/H027270/1). J.L.N.W. is supported by the Alborada Trust, the RAPIDD program of the Science & Technology Directorate, US Department of Homeland Security, the Fogarty International Center, US National Institutes of Health, the European Union FP7 project ANTIGONE (contract number 278976) and by BBSRC grant BB/I012192/1.

This is the final version. It was first published by Royal Society Publishing at http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/282/1808/20150374.