Applying Inventory Models to Evaluate Water Productivity and Optimize Food Production in the Course of Climate Change - Lessons From Smallholder Farms in Machakos District, Kenya

Ngonzo  Luwesi, Cush; Shisanya, Chris Allan; Apiyo Obando, Joy

Applying Inventory Models to Evaluate Water Productivity and Optimize Food Production in the Course of Climate Change - Lessons From Smallholder Farms in Machakos District, Kenya

2012

Ngonzo Luwesi, Cush | Shisanya, Chris Allan | Apiyo Obando, Joy

Text retained for oral presentation during the 2012 African Econometrics Society (AES) Conference to be held in Kampala, from 25 to 27 of July 2012

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Economics is all about rationality in resource allocation rather than greedy maximization of profits. Water suppliers enjoy high water productivities under drought conditions but are unable to ensure supply sustainability to the expense of water users. This study attempted to explain food shortage in the water scarce Muooni Catchment in the course of climate change. It used operational research, and particularly hydro-economic inventory models to address three specific questions: (i) what anthropogenic and environmental factors undermine water storage in Muooni Dam? (ii) to what extent do fluctuations of the active water storage capacity of Muooni Dam affect agricultural water productivity and food security in the catchment? (iii) how can farmers optimize their water demands and supplies in this catchment under fluctuating rainfall regimes? Hydro-economic inventory models were specifically used to evaluate farmers’ water Economic Order Quantity (EOQ), Limit Average Cost (LAC) and Minimum Efficient Scale (MES). This approach enabled useful recommendation on the rationalization and optimization of crop water requirements and crop yields under three different rainfall regimes: Above Normal (ANOR), Normal (NOR), and Below Normal (BNOR) [JEL Classification Number: Q 25 ].

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