Climate change mitigation through alternative uses of Norwegian forest resources
A. Maarit I. Kallio | Victor F. Strîmbu | Helle Gobakken | Terje Gobakken
The carbon substitution and storage effects related to Norwegian forests and the forest sector were compared under three potential roundwood harvest scenarios: maintaining harvests at 2021 levels, increasing harvests by 20% due to policies aimed at maximizing economic benefits from the forest sector, and reducing harvests by 20% due to biodiversity concerns. For harvested wood products, both the current product structure and hypothetical alternatives were considered. The carbon stock development in forests was projected using a forestry simulation tool for Norway. Many uncertainties in carbon storage, substitution parameters, and data have been addressed using Monte Carlo simulations. Shifting a portion of pulpwood use to produce wood-based insulation materials and textile fibres was found to increase the climate benefits from the Norwegian forest sector. In contrast, the shift to bioethanol production had only a marginal effect compared to the current production structure. The analysis spanned the next two decades, which is a period relevant to the investment and operational lifespan of industrial facilities. The results suggest that during this time, smarter use of harvested roundwood for HWPs with high carbon substitution benefits can be an effective means of climate change mitigation. However, in the long term, enhancing forest carbon sinks by reducing harvests may be more beneficial for the climate, provided that global efforts to reduce emissions from energy production are successful and lead to a decrease in emissions associated with the production of various materials.
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