Estimation of Serial Interval and Reproduction Number to Quantify the Transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in South Korea
Kim, Dasom | Ali, Sheikh, Taslim | Kim, Sungchan | Jo, Jisoo | Lim, Jun-Sik | Lee, Sunmi | Ryu, Sukhyun | Daejeon University | The University of Hong Kong (HKU) | Hong Kong Science and Technology Parks Corporation (HKSTP) | Kyung Hee University (KHU) | Interactions hôtes-agents pathogènes [Toulouse] (IHAP) ; Ecole Nationale Vétérinaire de Toulouse (ENVT) ; Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP) ; Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP) ; Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) | This work was supported by the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea by the Ministry of Education (NRF-2020R1I1A3066471).
The data generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available on the open repository https://github.com/gentryu/COVID-19omicron.This study did not require institutional review board approval or informed consent because all data used were anonymous and publicly available on public health agency websites.
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Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]Английский. The omicron variant (B.1.1.529) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was the predominant variant in South Korea from late January 2022. In this study, we aimed to report the early estimates of the serial interval distribution and reproduction number to quantify the transmissibility of the omicron variant in South Korea between 25 November 2021 and 31 December 2021. We analyzed 427 local omicron cases and reconstructed 73 transmission pairs. We used a maximum likelihood estimation to assess serial interval distribution from transmission pair data and reproduction numbers from 74 local cases in the first local outbreak. We estimated that the mean serial interval was 3.78 (standard deviation, 0.76) days, which was significantly shorter in child infectors (3.0 days) compared to adult infectors (5.0 days) (p < 0.01). We estimated the mean reproduction number was 1.72 (95% CrI, 1.60-1.85) for the omicron variant during the first local outbreak. Strict adherence to public health measures, particularly in children, should be in place to reduce the transmission risk of the highly transmissible omicron variant in the community.
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