Extreme lows of wheat production in Brazil
Nóia Júnior, Rogério, de Souza | Martre, Pierre | Finger, Robert | van Der Velde, Marijn | Ben-Ari, Tamara | Ewert, Frank | Webber, Heidi | Ruane, Alex, C | Asseng, Senthold | Technische Universität Munchen - Technical University Munich - Université Technique de Munich (TUM) | Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE) ; Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro ; Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro) | Department of Management, Technology, and Economics [ETH Zürich] (D-MTEC) ; Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich) | European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC) | Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École nationale des ponts et chaussées (ENPC)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) | Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) | Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz (INRES) ; Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn | NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)
International audience
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]Английский. Wheat production in Brazil is insufficient to meet domestic demand and falls drastically in response to adverse climate events. Multiple, agro-climate-specific regression models, quantifying regional production variability, were combined to estimate national production based on past climate, cropping area, trend-corrected yield, and national commodity prices. Projections with five CMIP6 climate change models suggest extremes of low wheat production historically occurring once every 20 years would become up to 90% frequent by the end of this century, depending on representative concentration pathway, magnified by wheat and in some cases by maize price fluctuations. Similar impacts can be expected for other crops and in other countries. This drastic increase in frequency in extreme low crop production with climate change will threaten Brazil's and many other countries progress toward food security and abolishing hunger.
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