Estimating spatial and temporal variations of the reproduction number for highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 epidemic in Thailand
Marquetoux, Nelly | Paul, Mathilde | Wongnarkpet, S. | Poolkhet, C. | Thanapongtharm, W. | Roger, F. | Ducrot, Christian | Chalvet-Monfray, Karine | Unité de Recherche d'Épidémiologie Animale (UR EpiA) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) | VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS) | Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad) | Aristotle University of Thessaloniki | Kasetsart University [Bangkok, Thailand] (KU) | Bureau of Disease Control and Veterinary Services ; Partenaires INRAE | Forêts et Sociétés (UPR Forêts et Sociétés) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad) | Université de Lyon
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Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]Английский. Since 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus has spread, causing a pandemic with serious economic consequences and public health implications. Quantitative estimates of the spread of HPAI H5N1 are needed to adapt control measures. This study aimed to estimate the variations of the reproduction number R in space and time for the HPAI H5N1 epidemic in Thailand. Transmission between sub-districts was analyzed using three different and complementary methods. Transmission of HPAI H5N1 was intense (R(t) > 1) before October 2004, at which point the epidemic started to progressively fade out (R(t) < 1). The spread was mainly local, with 75% of the putative distances of transmission less than 32 km. The map of the mean standardized ratio of transmitting the infection (sr) showed sub-districts with a high risk of transmitting infection. Findings from this study can contribute to discussions regarding the efficacy of control measures and help target surveillance programs. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
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