MIND STEP Deliverable D 6.4: Policy evaluation

This deliverable presents the testing of the MIND STEP toolbox to perform an integrated ex-ante policy assessment based on the various spatial scales and economic, environmental and social dimensions of the models in the toolbox. We applied the toolbox to examine two benchmark scenarios for EU agriculture in 2030, regarding climate mitigation and reduction of mineral nitrogen fertiliser use, key issues identified by the MIND STEP stakeholders. These scenarios link different models and activities across the MIND STEP project. The new modelling possibilities offered by the MIND STEP toolbox are based on the bioeconomic and technology rich farm model FarmDyn and other micro-models that have been added to the set of micro- and macro-models frequently used by the European Commission (IFM-CAP, CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAGNET). The micro-models include farm management changes and therefore allow more realistic assessment of scenario impacts. The modelling work in MIND STEP has not only improved the representation of farmer behaviour, technological options, and management practices at Individual Decision Making level, but has also established improved linkages with the sectoral models MAGNET, CAPRI, and GLOBIOM, which is a stated objective of the MIND STEP project. Notwithstanding these improvements, the model results can still exhibit a rather wide range of possible outcomes. This wide range can in particular be attributed to data uncertainty and different levels of mitigation technologies represented in the models. The analysis of the results of the GHG mitigation and mineral N fertilizer use reduction strategies provide valuable information for future policy formulation within the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). A gradual implementation of combined approaches of taxation and subsidies emerge as a potential strategy to balance income stability and environmental objectives. Particularly relevant is the role that evolving technology may have in achieving sustainable agricultural practices. Finally, Deliverable 6.4 also sheds light on three main areas for refining the MIND STEP toolbox: (i) improving accuracy in representing farm-level impacts and incorporating structural changes; (ii) improving data quality, especially with regard to the specific costs of each region and sector and the mitigation potentials of new technologies; and (iii) enhancing model alignment and transparency. Addressing these methodological aspects will ultimately strengthen the quality of model-based scientific advice for the CAP, aimed at a nuanced and adaptable implementation of sustainable agricultural practices.