Large underestimations of warming-induced soil carbon emissions from oversimplistic Q10 indicator
Moinet, Gabriel Y.K. | Morán-Rivera, Karen | Moinet, Antoine | Wadoux, Alexandre, M. J.-C. | Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR) | Département Ingénierie Logiciels et Systèmes (DILS (CEA, LIST)) ; Laboratoire d'Intégration des Systèmes et des Technologies (LIST (CEA)) ; Direction de Recherche Technologique (CEA) (DRT (CEA)) ; Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Direction de Recherche Technologique (CEA) (DRT (CEA)) ; Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris-Saclay | Laboratoire d'étude des Interactions Sol - Agrosystème - Hydrosystème (UMR LISAH) ; Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-AgroParisTech-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro Montpellier ; Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro) | We thank Wageningen University Soil Cluster for funding the PhD project of Karen Moran-Rivera. Alexandre M.J.-C. Wadoux has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No 101059012. | European Project: 101059012
International audience
Показать больше [+] Меньше [-]Английский. The sensitivity of soil microbial respiration to climate warming is a major source of uncertainty in predicting soil carbon (C) emissions to the atmosphere and their feedback to climate change. One key issue is the persistent misuse of Q 10 , the factor by which respiration rate is multiplied for a 10 • C increase in temperature, as an indicator of the temperature sensitivity. Despite ample empirical and theoretical evidence that Q 10 is temperaturedependent, most publications on the topic continue to measure and conceptualise Q 10 as being independent of temperature. Here, we analyse a published dataset of temperature incubations of soil microbial respiration across a global latitudinal gradient and project the resulting sensitivities onto global maps under four climate change scenarios. We reveal that omitting to account for the temperature dependence of Q 10 leads to an underestimation of global soil C emissions from 2015 to 2100 ranging from 5.5 ± 2.4 PgC to 10.4 ± 6.9 PgC across different climate change scenarios. Moreover, beyond uncertainties in predictions of global soil C emissions, modelling inaccuracies are geographically skewed, with large underestimations at high latitudes (of up to 34 MgC ha -1 ) and overestimations in warmer regions (of up to 12 MgC ha -1 ). The disparate regional patterns have large implications for land stewardship, as management efforts could overlook soil C losses in vulnerable septentrional areas while unnecessary interventions could be recommended in tropical regions where soil C sequestration may not be as pressing.
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