Mapping Resilience to Compound Events in a Global Metropolis: A Case Study of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

The interconnectedness and amplification of crises across climatic, political, technological, and other dimensions—referred to as the polycrisis—is increasingly threatening cities and urban populations throughout the world. A key manifestation of polycrisis is the intensification of climate change hazards, including compound events, which combine multiple, potentially interacting climate and weather events. Yet, little research has examined compound events at an intra-urban scale, particularly among cities within the Middle East. To fill this gap, I analyzed compound events in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia and a city of economic and political importance already experiencing various climate change threats. Using an approach combining Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping with meteorological analysis of ERA5 data, I analyzed a) Riyadh’s vulnerability to extreme heat and flash flooding, and b) how Riyadh is impacted over time and space by three hazard scenarios: extreme heat, flash flooding, and their compound occurrence. The study integrated social, ecological, and technological dimensions with temperature and precipitation data, at a resolution of 3x3 kilometers within Riyadh and its surroundings, from 2014-2024. My results show that areas of high potential hazard impacts are increasing in the north and portions of the south and west of Riyadh’s urban center, with hazard hotspots in the east, north, and southwest of the city. The relationship between hazard scores and urban features such as impervious surface, building area, and green space varies in and around Riyadh and by hazard type, suggesting the need for spatially differentiated mitigation strategies. This comprehensive approach to hazard mapping not only offers insights for Riyadh’s urban development, but is also replicable in other cities throughout the world, paving the way for broader understanding of urban resilience to polycrisis.