Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Shipping Accidents Consequences Assessment
Magdalena Bogalecka | Ewa Dąbrowska
The purpose of this study is to present and apply an innovative technique to model environmental consequences of shipping accidents in relations to events initiating those accidents. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is used to model shipping accidents and chemical release consequences within the world&rsquo:s sea and ocean waters. The model was created based on the previously designed novel general probabilistic approach to critical infrastructure accident consequences, including three models: the process of initiating events generated by a critical infrastructure accident, the process of environmental threats coming from released chemicals that are a result of initiating events, and the process of environmental degradation stemming from environmental threats. It is a new approach that has never been proposed and applied before. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used under the assumption of the semi-Markov model of these three processes. A procedure for the realization and generation of this process and evaluation of its characteristics is proposed and applied in the preparation of the C# program. Using this program, the processes&rsquo: characteristics are predicted for a specific sea area. Namely, for the considered processes, the limit values of transient probabilities between the states and the mean values of total sojourn times at the particular states for the fixed time are determined. The results obtained can be used practically by maritime practitioners involved in making decisions related to the safety of maritime transport and to mitigation actions concerned with maritime accidents.
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