Future Climate Trends in the Wine-Growing Regions of the Western Cape of South Africa
2025
Helga Chauke | Rita Pongrácz
The Western Cape province is among the best wine-producing regions: however, the province has been facing environmental challenges due to the rapidly changing climate. This study analyses the projected changes in temperature and precipitation patterns across seven wine-producing districts in the Western Cape using high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the CORDEX-Africa framework. The model simulations highlight spatial variability due to variable topography and microclimates within the province wherein variable changes in climate conditions are projected over the selected wine-producing regions. The Olifants River is projected to experience the most substantial temperature increases&mdash:greater than 5 °:C&mdash:under the very high baseline emission scenario at the end of the century, while regions closer to the coast, such as Cape Agulhas, are projected to experience moderate changes in both temperature and precipitation changes. The projected changes in precipitation indicate a strong drying trend, especially over regions that are farther from the south coast. The results highlight the vulnerability of vinicultural practices due to climate change: therefore, this study can be used to provide stakeholders with information needed so that they can adapt to the changing climate conditions across wine regions.
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