Belt and Road Initiative and Urban Landscapes: Quantifying Land Use Changes and Development Strategies in Minsk, Vientiane, and Djibouti

This paper presents a comparative study of land use in different regional types under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) through a case study of Minsk, Vientiane, and Djibouti. The BRI has created significant opportunities for economic cooperation between China and participating countries. As key instruments for advancing the BRI and fostering regional economic development, overseas industrial parks play a crucial role in attracting investment, facilitating workforce training, and promoting local infrastructure development. With the growing number of overseas industrial parks, the need for their efficient and scientifically guided development has attracted increasing scholarly attention. However, a pressing issue remains of how to formulate context-specific and scientifically grounded development plans for these parks that account for diverse regional natural conditions and economic foundations. This study examines the China-Belarus Industrial Park in Minsk, the Saysettha Development Zone in Vientiane, and the Djibouti International Free Trade Zone, using remote sensing data and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to analyze land use changes and driving forces in these three cities from 2000 to 2020, thereby revealing regional land-use patterns and their developmental differences. The findings indicate that population density, transportation infrastructure, and topographic features are the primary driving forces behind land use changes in the areas surrounding the industrial parks, significantly influencing the expansion of construction land and the utilization patterns of adjacent land types. Moreover, variations in natural conditions and economic strategies across regions result in divergent land use changes, giving rise to distinct urbanization characteristics. The coordinated development of ports, industrial parks, and urban areas plays a vital role in advancing regional economic integration. Through quantitative analysis, this study provides theoretical support and practical guidance for the planning and development of overseas industrial parks along the BRI. It advocates for tailored development strategies that align with specific regional contexts, in order to avoid the shortcomings of one-size-fits-all policies under varying natural and economic conditions.