Causal Effect Analysis of the Relationship Between Relative Bird Abundance and Deforestation in Mexico
2025
Claudia Itzel Beteta-Hernández | Iriana Zuria | Pedro P. Garcillán | Luis Felipe Beltrán-Morales | María del Carmen Blázquez Moreno | Gerzaín Avilés-Polanco
In this study, we used a causal analysis approach to assess the impact of deforestation on bird abundance in Mexico. Based on records in the eBird and GBIF databases, ten species were selected in 807 grids on the mainland. Relative abundances by species were estimated using a fixed-effects panel data regression for the period 2016&ndash:2018. Deforestation was used as a quasi-natural experiment, classifying treatment and control groups according to the distribution of relative abundances by quintiles of gross deforestation rates during the period 2001&ndash:2018. The treatment group was defined as relative abundances of birds present in grids in the last deforestation quintile (&ge:4% to 12%): the control group included relative abundances of birds present in grids of the first four quintiles (<:4%). Extended regression models were used to estimate the impacts of high deforestation rates on the relative abundance of birds, finding mixed causal effects: five showed statistically significant declines in abundance (Ruddy Ground Dove (Columbina talpacoti), Black Vulture (Coragyps atratus), Melodious Blackbird (Dives dives), Bewick&rsquo:s Wren (Thryomanes bewickii), and Rufous-backed Thrush (Turdus rufopalliatus)), while one specie Yellow-winged Cacique (Cassiculus melanicterus) exhibited significant increases. These findings highlight the importance of causal effect studies in contributing to empirical evidence-based conservation decision-making.
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