Comprehensive Assessment of PeriodiCT Model for Canopy Temperature Forecasting

Canopy temperature is an important indicator of plants’ water status. The so-called PeriodiCT model was developed to forecast canopy temperature using ambient weather variables, providing a powerful tool for planning crop irrigation scheduling. As this model requires observed data in its parameter training before implementing the forecast, it is important to understand the data requirements in the model training such that accurate forecasts are attained. In this work, we conduct a comprehensive assessment of the PeriodiCT model in terms of sample size requirement and predictabilities across sensors in a field and across seasons for the full model and sub-models. The results show that (1) 5 days’ observations are sufficient for the full model and sub-models to achieve very high predictability, with a minimum coefficient of efficiency of 0.844 for the full model and 0.840 for the sub-model using only air temperature. The predictability decreases in the following order: full model, sub-model without radiation S, with air temperature Ta and vapor pressure VP, and with only Ta. The predictions perform reasonably well even when only one day’s observations are used. (2) The predictability into the future is very stable as the prediction steps increase. (3) The predictabilities of the full and sub-models when using a trained model from one sensor for another sensor perform comparatively well, with a minimum coefficient of efficiency of 0.719 for the full model and 0.635 for the sub-model using only air temperature. (4) The predictabilities of the sub-models without solar radiation when using trained models from one season for another season perform comparatively well, with a minimum coefficient of efficiency of 0.866 for the full model and 0.764 for the sub-model using only air temperature, although the cross-season performances are not as good as the cross-sensor performances. The importance of the predictors is in the order of air temperature, vapor pressure, wind speed, and solar radiation, while vapor pressure and wind speed have similar contributions, and solar radiation has only a marginal contribution.