Comparative projections of the distribution and growth of pubescent oak in the face of climate change : the benefits and limitations of modelling | Projections comparées de la répartition et de la croissance du Chêne pubescent face au changement climatique : apports et limites de la modélisation

International audience

Английский. Essential to the French forestry and wood industry, the Sessile and Pedunculate oaks are threatened by the intensification of extreme climatic events, while the Pubescent oak, which is more resistant to drought, offers a promising alternative. Modelling is a key tool for exploring this alternative, but its complexity presents challenges in terms of transferability. Against this backdrop, two mechanistic models (CASTANEA and ForCEEPS) were used to assess the potential of Pubescent Oak in terms of maintenance and production in France by 2100. The projections show the species is declining in the warmer parts of its range, and that it may persist in the northern half of France and in mountainous areas. The volumes of wood harvested with the most dynamic management are lower, but nevertheless comparable to current removals of Sessile and Pedunculate oak. In the long term, the diameters of the individuals harvested (DBH > 25 cm) could allow them to be used as timber. The convergence of the two models highlights the importance of Pubescent Oak for the future of the forestry and timber industry, particularly outside its current area of distribution. The divergences between their projections for stand survival and productivity give a possible order of magnitude of the associated uncertainties, and are discussed in order to provide a critical analysis of forest modelling as a decision making tool. This analysis illustrates the importance of using different models to determine whether similar conclusions emerge despite different approaches, i.e. quantifying to a minimum and reducing uncertainties in order to produce more robust results.

Французский. Essentiels à la filière forêt-bois française, les Chênes sessile et pédonculé sont menacés par l'intensification des événements climatiques extrêmes tandis que le Chêne pubescent, plus résistant à la sécheresse, offre une alternative prometteuse. La modélisation est un divergences de leurs projections concernant la survie et la productivité des peuplements donnent un ordre de grandeur possible des incertitudes associées, et sont discutées afin de fournir une analyse critique de la modélisation forestière en tant qu'outil d'aide à la décision. Cette analyse illustre l'importance d'utiliser des modèles différents pour déterminer si des conclusions similaires émergent malgré des approches variées, c'est-à-dire quantifier à minima et réduire les incertitudes afin de produire des résultats plus robustes.