Evaluation of Adaptive Measures of Climate Change on the Income of Rural Farmers in Tarshiz Plain
2022
Hamid Mohammadi | Sanaz Hedayat Shishvan
Climate change, which poses a serious threat to natural ecosystems and the sustainable development of natural resources with global warming, and the negative effects of climate change on the environment and the country's economy. In this paper, we present a positive mathematical planning model for evaluating adaptive measures of climate change on rural farmers' incomes and natural resource management in the Tarshiz Plain. First, the trend of temperature and precipitation changes in Tarshiz plain during the years 1083-2020 was studied. Then, using regression analyzes the effect of average temperature and annual rainfall variables on yield and area under cultivation of selected crops in this plain was investigated. The results showed that climate change had a positive effect on the income of the farmer household on improving the improvement of the cultivation pattern. To achieve sustainable development in the field of climate change, sustainable development of natural resources under environmental protection (rangeland conservation and vegetation) must be increased. On the other hand, the yield of most selected crops has a negative and significant effect and leads to a decrease in the area under irrigated wheat, saffron and eggplant in the crop pattern of Tarshiz plain. With the occurrence of climate change, the total gross yield of rural farmers in Tarshiz plain decreases by 11.17% and the total water consumption in the cultivation pattern decreases by 5.77% compared to the base year conditions. It is recommended to use low-irrigation methods, improved and high-yield seed technologies in terms of drought resistance and protection of pasture cover (no grazing of livestock in the rangeland). JEL: Q15, Q25, Q54, R11.
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