Exploring the nexus between land use change, climate factors, and environmental flows (e-flows) for long-term water security in the Muger River watershed, Ethiopia
2025
Gizaw Abera Gebreegziabher | Sileshi Degefa | Wakgari Furi
Abstract This study investigated the impacts of land use and land cover change on environmental parameters and hydrological dynamics in the Muger River watershed, Ethiopia, over four decades (1984–2024). Land cover was mapped using Random Forest classification in Google Earth Engine, and climate extremes were assessed with ClimPACT2. Results reveal substantial forest (−1,176 km2) and grassland (−724.28 km2) loss, alongside expansion of cultivated land (+1,646.80 km2) and settlements (+878.00 km2). These changes contributed to increased soil heat flux (+4.07 W/m2), mean land surface temperature (+5.6 °C), and soil erosion (+11.54 tons/ha), while soil moisture (−0.362 m3/ha) and soil organic carbon (−385.1 tons/ha) declined. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index fell by 0.795, and water balance decreased by 36.98%. Additionally, more frequent extreme temperature events and longer dry spells worsened drought conditions and disrupted environmental flows. The classification method achieved over 90% overall accuracy and a kappa coefficient of more than 0.91. These findings highlight the role of cloud-based remote sensing platforms in monitoring watershed changes and underscore the growing vulnerability of environmental flows to LULCC and climate extremes. The study emphasizes the urgent need for adaptive land and water management strategies to mitigate future water scarcity risks under increasing environmental stress.
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