Monsoon prediction in Bangladesh: a preliminary study
1998
Ahmed, R. (University of Wisconsin-La-Crosse (USA). Dept. of Geography and Earth Science)
Arrival dates of the summer monsoon in Bangladesh vary from place to place, and from year to year. An empirical statistical model has been developed for the prediction of the arrival dates of the summer monsoon in the country. Daily rainfall amount and mean wind direction (azimuth) at nineteen stations, for the period May 1 through October 31, for each of the 30-year period from 1958 through 1987, were used to determine the arrival dates of the summer monsoon. Statistical relationship between the arrival date of the summer monsoon at Cox's Bazar (a station in the south-eastern coastal area) and the Temperature Gradient Index (TGI), expressed as the ratio between temporal temperature changes at Rajshahi (an interior station) and at Chittagong (a coastal station) during the early part of the pre-monsoon season, has been used to predict the arrival date of the summer monsoon at Cox's Bazar in a given year. Arrival dates of the summer monsoon at other stations were predicted by projecting the subsequent location of the isoline of the advancing monsoon based on its normal (or mean) progression.
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