Viability of farms: identification and precocious detection of farms in risk position | La viabilite des exploitations agricoles: reperage et detection precoce des exploitations a risque
2000
Marsin, J.M.
The origins of financial difficulties in agriculture are called to mind for some countries. The usual ways to identify failing farms are specified and the viability concept is explained. The more relevant one is the financial failure in the context of the CAE [Centre for Agricultural Economy, Belgium] in accountancy network on which all the investigations are built. The viability analysis consists in creating risk groups by means of cluster analysis and assessing the associated risk intensity at each group by rank scoring calculations. The research is carried on with a widening of the analysis at all relevant indicators to elaborate tools for identification and also for precocious detection of the viability groups. These tools allow to assign every farm, of known group or not, which has a book-keeping to one of the viability groups. In order to be operational the put up assignment rules have to be of easy approach in their mathematical conception and in their economical interpretation. The linear discriminant analysis replies well to these aims. Moreover it offers the possibility to imagine a decision assistance by means of scoring scales and the associated membership probabilities.
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