Predictive microbiology and modeling applications in food safety
Garcia, M.M. (GAR-DEL International Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K2G 5P1)
Recent global concerns in the microbial safety and shelf life of foods have spawned new interest in predictive microbiology, quantitative microbial ecology and risk assessment. The behaviour of microbial populations in foods maybe determined by the properties of the food and their exposure to the ecosystem during processing, storage and transport. The effects of these physico-chemical properties and environmental factors can be quantified and expressed in mathematical equations or models. Predictive microbiology provides precission in ensuring the safety of foods and be used with existing data to predict new situations. Predictive modeling based on kinetic or probability analysis or an integration of both has accelerated the development of software packages that can be validated in the laboratory by food microbiologists for specific pathogens and food matrix. These programs include the USDA Pathogen Modeling Program, the UK MAFF Food MicroModel and the Australian Food Spoilage Predictor. These software packages and valuable tools in the development of food safety approaches such as HACCP and Risk Assessment. While providing a more accurate prediction in complex situations than previous subjective methods, predictive models also emphasize the limitations of experimental data obtained under laboratory conditions, the need to quantify uncertainties and the importance of validation as a prerequisite to field application
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]