Impact of climate change on crop production potential - objectives and methodology
2000
Dubrovsky,M. | Zalud, Z. | Stastna, M. | Trnka, M. (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Hradec Kralove (Czech Republic))
Climate change impact on crop growth and development is estimated mostly by two different methods: 1/ Experimental methods-the crop is grown under controlled conditions (a glasshouse with controlled atmosphere, open top chambers etc.). An advantage of these methods is the experimental character of the trials and the disadvantage is that these methods have some specific restrictions and are time and money demanding. 2/ Simulation methods-due to intensive development of computers and related software the impacts of climatic changes on crop growth can be estimated by highly sophisticated computer models. These methods is rapid and cheap. Nevertheless, the models are still based on experimental results and may carry their restrictions also to the models. The main objective of this paper is to introduce the methodology for estimation of climate change impact on crop production potential. The main steps towards reaching this goal are as follows: 1. parameterization of crop growth models and validation of crop model yield predictions with respect to regional conditions. 2. evaluation of climate change scenario based on GCM and generating synthetic weather data for present and changed climates by a weather generator. 3. modelling and assessment of impacts of elevated CO2 concentration and the related changed climatic conditions on crop yields. 4. estimation of the change in crop production potential. 5. analysis of sensitivity of model-predicted crop yields to specific meteorological variables. 6. adaptation analysis
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