A long-term outlook for rice supply and demand balances in South, Southeast, and East Asia
2002
Sombilla, A.M. | Rosegrant, M.W. | Meijer, S.
This paper tries to assess the world rice market in the years ahead by analyzing projection results to 2025 produced by the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) on supply, demand, trade, and prices under various scenarios. The baseline scenario indicates that rice production in the Asian region as a whole will still be able to increase at a rate to meet demand for the commodity while prices will further decline. This rosy picture is contingent on the continuation of trends of a large number of underlying drivers of world food markets as these are influenced by complex interactions among technology, policy, investment, environment, and human behavior. The alternative scenarios indicate that policy or technology failures that change the course of any one of these drivers could have a significant impact of future rice balances. The low population growth rate scenario, for example, can be beneficial for welfare improvement with the attainment of much lower prices that lead to higher per capita demand for rice, less pressure on fragile land to be brought into cultivation, and significant expansion of trade. The low yield scenario, on the one hand, can translate into market difficulties - high world prices, high domestic prices, and social protests - especially in the low-income countries that depend the most on rice for their staple food. In contrast, the high yield growth scenario could bring significant benefits but should be achieved with great care so that gains would accrue to both producers and consumers, especially in the high-poverty countries and less-favored regions within those countries. In all of the scenarios, including the baseline, the poor countries - mostly in South Asia and some in Southeast Asia - are greatly affected by variations in the factors that influence production and demand. This is because these countries have the most fragile environments for rice production. The future challenge is clear: to adopt appropriate and well-balanced policy reforms that promote growth and equity in Asia, especially in the more difficult agroecological and low-potential systems.
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