An application and problems of the prediction of forest resources using the gentan probaility theory
2001
Kurokawa, Y. (Tottori Univ. (Japan). Faculty of Agriculture) | Toda, E.
A content and trend of forest resources are more important for inhabitants and economic activity at the mountain village region. Therefore the prediction of forest resources over a long period is very significant. A kind of Markov Process in the theory of stochastic processes was applied in this paper. This paper examined whether any result came out when the Gentan probability theory was applied to the prediction of forest resources according to a kind of sensitivity analysis and simulation method to verify the effectiveness and the limit of this Gentan probability theory at a small mountain village in Tottori Prefecture in Japan. The results of this paper were presented to the forestry-interested party of the local area, and some points in which they differed from the actualities were pointed out, but the results of the paper are more useful for the long-term prediction of the man-made forest resources. It is considered that these results of this method can give some useful suggestions for the management of forest resources in the future.
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