Rice production, climate change, and methane emissions: adaptation and mitigation options
2003
Matthews, R.
Various studies have indicated that, in general, rice yields are likely to increase in the higher latitudes and decrease in the lower latitudes under future climates. Other studies, where crop yield changes are used as the input into economic models, suggest that not only will the poorest countries suffer the most from climate change but also the poorest people within those countries will suffer disproportionately as they are the least likely to be able to adapt. Various options available to farmers for adaptation to climate change are discussed. At high latitudes, modification of sowing dates should permit a transition from single cropping to double cropping at some locations, while at lower latitudes it should help to avoid severe spikelet sterility caused by high temperatures. Selection for varieties less sensitive to higher temperatures seems capable of restoring yield levels to those predicted for current climates. Options available to reduce methane emissions from rice fields to the atmosphere includes midseason drainage, direct wet seeding, the use of inorganic fertilizers, particularly those containing sulfate, and the application of compost and biogas sludge rather than fresh organic material. Future research should focus on integrated assessment approaches to evaluate adaptation and mitigation options. For developing countries, economic development is still the primary concern, and there is a need to find ways for farmers both to enhance their livelihoods on the one hand and to adapt to climate change and reduce methane emissions, if possible, on the other. Strategies to adapt to climate variability in the short term should assist adaptation to climate change in the longer term.
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