[Prognosis of aqua ecosystems state change]
Loginov, V.F. | Ikonnikov, V.F.(Institute for Problems of Natural Resources Use and Ecology, Minsk (Belarus))
Assessmnet of water ponds has been done. Deep mesotrophic seem to be most vulnerable. Significant abnormalities of natural recurrence of Belarus lake water level have been revealed. It was found that lag of series of the dynamics of lakes water levels is much higher than temporary series of water consumption of Belarus rivers. Two basic cyclic components in variation of some bio-limnological characteristics have been revealed (2...3; 7...10 years), which well correlate to level regime, solar radiation and other climatic factors. It was shown that at the present endency of global temperature rise the ponds productivity may be higher in the nearest 15...20 years by 5...10%, i.e. at the growth of "thermal forcing" on the ponds one may expect eutrophication process acceleration. Species composition (groups) shift of phytoplankton to types (groups) of more high temperature optimum (e.x. ciano-bacteria) may cause a great risk to fresh water quality. According to the prognosis, 2...3 fold increase in mineral fertilizers application in agriculture may result in 1,5...2,5 fold increase of pollution rate and rise of bioproductional characteristics (ponds trophical status) for high-eutrophic and mesotrophic aqueous ecosystems and the rate of precipitation accumulation may vary in the range of 5,0...0,5 mm/year respectively
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