Projections of global dietary energy requirements from the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios (SRES)
2006
Munesue, Y.(Tokyo Inst. of Technology, Tokyo (Japan)) | ; Masui, T.
A database has been developed containing future scenarios of average and minimum per capita dietary energy requirements and gross dietary energy requirements at country level. Projections are carried out covering 184 countries from 1990 to 2100 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) for providing information help to evaluate the impact of climate change on food security. An important feature of this paper is that its approach is 'normative' rather than 'positive'. This means that its projections reflect the most desirable future but not the most likely one. For example, per capita dietary energy 'requirements' are estimated from a nutritional viewpoint but not its 'consumption' from an economic standpoint. National dietary energy requirements are calculated with FAO's methodology of measuring the number of undernourished people so that the proportion of undernourished in total population may be below 2.5 % throughout the projection period. Consequently, world dietary energy requirements in SRES A1 and B1 scenarios reach 9.80 x 10E15 kcal, 9.92 x 10E15 kcal by 2050 respectively and decrease to 7. 60 x 10E15 kcal, 7.65 x 10E15 kcal in 2100. On the contrary, those in A2 and B2 scenarios continue to increase to 1.37 x 10E16 kcal, 1.09 x 10E16 kcal in 2050 and reach 1.74 x 10E16 kcal, 1.16 x 10E16 kcal by 2100. The results of the dietary energy requirement estimation are available at http://www.soc.titech.ac.jp/-morita/ download- data/index.html.
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