Mealybug: Cotton crop's worst catastrophe: Using agriculture decision support system (ADSS) for analysis of mealybug infestation of cotton crop in district Multan [Pakistan] during 2005-2006

For decades different government departments have been monitoring dynamic agricultural situations all around Punjab - the breadbasket of Pakistan. As a result, thousands of digital and non-digital data files are generated from hundreds of pest scouting and yield surveys, meteorological data recordings and other such undertakings. The data collected, due to its multivariate nature and disparate origins, is hard to integrate and thus does not provide a complete picture. Thus the lack of data integration (and standardization) contributes to an under- utilization of valuable and expensive historical data, and inevitably results in a limited capability to provide decision support, analysis and R&D. The Agriculture Decision Support System (ADSS) is the key to unlock data utilization. ADSS is a 26 month long Rs.30+ millions project funded by the National ICT R&D Fund currently underway at the FAST National University Islamabad under the patro nage of Dr. Amir Muhammad. The project is based on cotton and rice pest scouting and meteorological data for Punjab from 2001-2007. The ADSS is developed around end user requirements obtained from experts belonging to more than a dozen organizations of government, academia and research. These requirements were finally formulated into 21 questions. Pakistan is the fourth major supplier of cotton in the world, and for the year 2007 the Government of Pakistan set a production target of 14.13 millions bales. However, the target is not likely to be achieved due to the emergence of a new cotton pest, the Mealybug. So far Mealybug has been reported to be mainly responsible for ruining an estimated 3.1 millions bales of cotton. This pest emergence has taken almost all concerned by surprise; the per acre control cost is reported to have gone to Rs.1,500 thus making farmer the ultimate loser. To develop measures so as to control the Mealybug several studies have been carried out in th e past. In 2005 a survey was carried out jointly by the Agriculture Research Institute and the Extension Department in the cotton growing areas of Sindh. Based on farmer feedback it was established that use of broad-spectrum pesticides actually increased the pest population as it eradicated the predators and parasites. In 2006 a survey report was published by Punjab Agriculture University Ludhiana, which indicates that Mealybug was found in cotton fields near roads and irrigation channels. The survey team recommended eradication of weeds, flora and effective pesticide sprays. The analysis presented in this report is rich in detail and depth as it is based on the analysis of pest scouting data of more than 1,800 farmers of district Multan during 2005 and 2006 and meetings with 36 farmers in 2007. After digitizing, cleaning and standardizing the data using state of the art techniques and methods, analysis is presented which is centered on four questions identified by the domain experts, resulting in 29 graphs and charts covering predators, pesticides, geography, weather and cotton varieties. Some of the findings discussed in this report are localization of the pest attack (in and around Tehsil Multan), identification of pesticide group with high efficacy, weakness of BT cotton variety, evidence pointing to predator based control and effect of weather, specifically humidity on Mealybug infestation.