Hail risk management in NE Slovenia | Upravljanjanje s tveganjem zaradi toce v SV Sloveniji
2008
Klemencic, S., Chamber of Agriculture and Forestry of Slovenia, Maribor (Slovenia). Institut for Agriculture and Forestry Maribor | Rozman, C. | Strajnar, B. | Zagar, M. | Klemencic-Kosi, S.
Agriculture largely depends on meteorological and climatic conditions. Extreme weather phenomena comprise thunderstorms with hail, which is one of the most limiting factors in agriculture. This is why the decision-making strategy relating to hail risk management is inevitable in terms of agriculture. Based on the data of remote detection of reflectance and numerical modeling in sufficiently high resolution we have created a map of incidence and strength of thunderstorm occurences with hail in NE Slovenia. We have converted numerical data into a cartographic presentation of a degree of risk with the incidence of hail up to a micro location - graphical agricultural unit of a farm holding. We used a combined method of model calculations and decision trees to make an assessment of individual alternatives of hail risk management. Preliminary calculations of expected values using decision trees show that the expected values are higher at the alternatives with insurance also at favourable allocations of the probability of damage events as a consequence of hail. Based on the cartographic presentation a user can choose a combined model (insurance + anti-hail net) with regard to the degree of risk for the incidence of the damage event after hail. The analysis of the models for the reduction of risk due to damage after hail and thunderstorms shows that the most suitable and acceptable method is insurance of crops and fruits in combination with the placement of the anti-hail net at locations exposed to the highest degree of risk. The extent included into the insurance system must comprise 70% of production agricultural surfaces in order to create conditions for the reduction of premium quotes and allocation of damage extent. This is why a form of agricultural insurance functioning in the pool scheme must be formed.
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