Progress and challenges in identifying adaptive management strategies in rice production for the prevailing climate
2010
Boling, A.A. | Pascual, Z.P. | Eusebio, W.H. | Gregorio, G.B. | Bouman, B.A.M. | Tuong, T.P. | Redona, E.D., International Rice Research Inst., Los Baños, Laguna (Philippines)
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has confirmed the worldwide changes in climate. These climatic changes may have a strong effect on rice growth and yield. With a goal of designing adaptive management strategies for the prevailing climate, this study was carried out to gain improved understanding of temporal and spatial variations of potential rice growth and yield in temperate and subtropical (highly seasonal), areas with dry cool winters and hot humid summers (moderately seasonal), monsoonal (weakly seasonal), and equatorial (non-seasonal) rice-growing zones in Asia, Africa, and South America. Crop management, phenology, and weather data of IRRI-World Meteorological Organization's 1983-85 International Rice-Weather Yield Nursery (IRWYN) trials of 23 sites were used as inputs to ORYZA2000 model. Simulated potential yields were compared with measured yields in well-watered, well fertilized, and pest-free treatments. Long-term yield potential in different zones was explored using 1978-2007 weather data and yield trends were determined. Preliminary results showed that the ORYZA2000 model adequately simulated the potential rice yield in different rice-growing zones. Potential yield in monsoonal and equatorial areas decreased over the years. Progress in and challenges to determining rice production trends and identifying adaptive management strategies such as the choice of cultivars are discussed.
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