Fuzzy assessment of water resources carrying capacity of Changwu County | 长武县水资源承载力的模糊评价

中国人. 评价长武县的水资源承载能力（WRCC），为县域WRCC的评价提供依据。选取人均水资源可利用量、人均水资源占有量、单位GDP用水量、水资源开发利用率、单位耕地水资源量、单位面积水资源量、灌溉率等7项评价指标，采用模糊综合评价模型，计算得到WRCC的相对隶属度和影响因子贡献率；在考虑主观权重条件下，基于互补理论的二元对比方法确定主观权重，通过级别特征值计算得到长武县北塬区、河川区、南塬区3个区域的WRCC级别。长武县南塬区的WRCC级别从高水平向低水平过渡，社会经济发展与水资源利用情况协调较好；北塬区和河川区的WRCC均处于低水平，水资源利用已达到其最大承载能力，需要采取相应的措施，以确保社会经济的可持续发展。基于模糊识别理论的WRCC模糊评价方法，能较好地反映长武县WRCC的状况，也可用于其他县域WRCC的评价。

英语. The aim of this article is trying to provide a methodology for the evaluation of county’s water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) based on the WRCC evaluation of Changwu County. In this paper, 7 elevation indexes including per-capita availability quantity of the water resources, water resources ownership per capita, water consumption per unit GDP, utilization rate of water resources, water resources quantity per capita arable land, water resources quantity per unit area, irrigation rate are selected. The theory of fuzzy comprehensive assessment model is adopted for analyzing and calculating regional WRCC contribution ration and impact factor of relative membership. Subsequently, based on the theory of complementary binary comparison method, the subjective weights are obtained. Whilst, the WRCC characteristic value level is deducted. The result shows that: the WRCC of the region of southern tableland is transmitting from a higher level to a lower level, and its WRCC is relatively strong and the water resources have more potential development. On the contrary, the WRCC of the river region and the northern tableland region has reached their maximum bearing capacity respectively and the water resource are seriously short-supplied. WRCC fuzzy assessment method based on the fuzzy recognition theory reflects the water resources conditions of Changwu County. The result provides not only the decision-making basis for the rational utilization of water resources for Changwu County, but also the reference methodology for the further evaluation of county’s WRCC.