Potential geographic distribution of oriental fruit fly in Jiangxi Province | 东方果实蝇在江西省的潜在地理分布
2010
Liu Jianhong, Xinyu University, Xinyu (China) | Xiong Xiaozhen, Xinyu University, Xinyu (China) | Pan Yongzhi, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming (China)
【Objective】The aim was to effectively monitor and manage oriental fruit fly. 【Method】Maxent model and ArcGIS were used to predict potential geographic distributions of the fly based on associations between known occurrence records and a set of environmental variables. 【Result】The suitable areas for Bactrocera dorsalis infestations were mainly restricted to central and southern Jiangxi Province, with Latitude ranged from 24 to 28°N. Northeast Jiangxi, northwest Jiangxi and the regions bording upon Yangtse river were predicted as unsuitable for Bactrocera dorsalis. the fit for the model as measured by AUC was high, with value of 0.978 for the training data and 0.965 for the test data, indicating the high level of discriminatory power for the Maxent. A jackknife test in Maxent indicated that mean temperature of coldest quarter with highest gain value, was the most important environmental variable that restricted the expansion to north Jiangxi Province. 【Conclusion】Further research into the biology of the species and their ability to overcome barriers was necessary to explain niche differentiation, and to better understand invasion risk.
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