Future State of Climate in Vojvodina [Serbia] and Expected Effects on Crop Production | Buduće stanje klime u Vojvodini [Srbija] i očekivani uticaj na ratarsku proizvodnju
2011
Lalić, B., Poljoprivredni fakultet, Novi Sad (Serbia) | Mihailović, D.T., Poljoprivredni fakultet, Novi Sad (Serbia) | Podraščanin, Z., Prirodno-matematički fakultet, Novi Sad (Serbia)
Effects of climate change on agriculture are particularly significant in undeveloped and developing countries (such as Serbia), due to difficult economic situation and low investments in production improvement. A detailed study of current and future state of climate is the key stone for cost-effective and sustainable system of adaptation measures to climate change in the region such as Vojvodina, which is the most important agricultural part of Serbia. This article presents a detailed comparative analysis of the previous (1985-2005) and future (until 2040 and 2080) state of climate in Vojvodina region and its impact on the growing conditions of certain field crops. Data on expected climate conditions in 2040 and 2080 at six selected sites were obtained by applying statistical downscaling technique on outputs used from the three climate models (ECHAM5, HadCM3, NCAR-PCM). The expected changes in winter wheat yield were calculated using the crop model SIRIUS and by taking into account the assumed changes in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Adequate adaptation measures are proposed based on the obtained results.
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