Characterization of droughts in Serbia using standardized precipatation index and Markov chains
2011
Bezdan, A., Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia) | Benka, P., Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia) | Grabić, J., Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia) | Gregorič, G., Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana (Slovenia). Section for Meteorological Observations and Applications | Salvai, A., Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia)
This paper presents an application of homogeneous Markov chain model to time series of SPI in order to characterize droughts in Serbia. The long-term probabilities of occurrence of different drought severity classes, recurrence times, expected residence time in each drought class and expected first passage time to reach the non-drought state were computed. Results are presented in a form of maps and the drought-prone areas are identified. Results of the performed analysis are useful in the context of drought early warning systems and in a planning of drought mitigation practices.
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