The employment impact of industrial investment : a preliminary report
STERN, J.
This paper discusses conceptual issues and measurement techniques with respect to identifying the indirect effects of industrial investment. While the paper is not meant to be an exhaustive survey, it makes extensive use of the available literature in discussing the appropriate measurement of factor intensity. Greatest attention is devoted to the use of input-output analysis to estimate indirect employment as a result of forward and backward linkages from industrial investments. Numerical estimates of indirect employment effects are given at the industrial branch level. This is a "preliminary" report in several respects. No attempt is made formally to link estimates of indirect employment at the industrial branch level to analysis at the more detailed level of project design and appraisal. In particular, the refinement of project appraisal criteria to introduce sectoral differences in indirect effects is not discussed. The deepening of industrial structure that accompanies development and is reflected in changes in the input-output coefficient matrix over time is also not explicity dealt with. However, the latter aspect will be examined in a subsequent report.
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