Alternative development strategies of Korea (1976-1990) in an input-output dynamic simulation model
GUPTA, S. | PADULA, R.
This long-term planning model simulates the Korean economy and enables the planner to test the impact of a given policy or set of policies through the use of sensitivity analysis. An important feature of this study is that it attempts what might be called social cost-benefit analysis at a macroeconomic level. Several general conclusions about the future of Korea's economy have been drawn: (1) an annual GDP growth rate of at least 9% will be necessary over the next decade to insure acceptable targets in employment and equity; (2) a policy of continued high export growth is both feasible and necessary for Korea's economy; (3) income equity may deteriorate until 1985, despite high GDP growth; after 1985, income equity should improve as the population impact of the baby boom in Korea begins to subside. The paper's main thrust is that Korea's justifiable quest for high growth must be tempered by sober consideration of the social costs entailed in a given policy.
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