Who will China feed?
2008
B. Lohmar | F. Gale
In recent years, China has emerged as the world’s leading importer of soybeans, vegetable oil, cotton, wool, rubber, and animal hides. However, it has also been surprisingly successful at meeting the basic food needs of its population of more than 1.3 billion people, and it has stepped up as a major food exporter. This article asks: how long can China sustain this momentum? <br /><br />The authors argue that China’s current exploitation of land and water resources is either at or beyond sustainable levels. It is argued that the country has exploited the means of coaxing food and fibre out of a limited natural resource base to the extent that additional gains will be more difficult than in the past. The article points to: signs of stress to land and water signs of labour scarcity rising food prices (attributed to the recent trends in resource use, labour availability, and changing agricultural production, along with rising international food prices) hidden costs now and in the future Concluding points include: China’s sheer size and relatively open trade policies ensure that it will continue to be a major importer and exporter of agricultural products. However, rising prices and increasing attention to environmental and food safety problems in 2006-07 seemed to signal the end of “easy” growth in coming decades, China’s agricultural exports might be slowed as it faces resource and labour scarcities and confronts environmental and food safety costs that were not always taken into account during the decades of robust growth while future gains in China’s agricultural production will not come as easily as in the past, there is still scope to achieve further growth and a number of initiatives and policies to this end have already been established changing consumption patterns will play an important role in China’s future agricultural trade. As Chinese consumers diversify their diets, aggregate consumption of traditional food grains, such as rice and wheat, is flat or declining China’s fruit and vegetable production will continue to grow and, over time, food safety issues will likely be resolved. However, a large share of the increases in the production of these products will be consumed by China’s own large and increasingly wealthy population <br /><br /><br /><br />
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