Structural shift in demand for food: projections for 2020
2006
S. Mittal
Over the past two decades, even the poor in India have shifted their consumption away from cereals towards other foods. What are the implications of this for India’s future food security? This study reviews trends in per capita consumption of cereals and non-cereals to identify the factors that affect changes in cereal consumption, and compares future demand with supply projections. The analysis considers the relative influences of prices, income and individual characteristics such as age, type of household and rural or urban location, and makes demand projections for the year 2020 under different per capita growth scenarios.The study predicts that the per capita production of grains will decline, but per capita availability as a result of imports will more than accommodate increased demand to the year 2020.However, to ensure food security, decreasing domestic production will need to be addressed through improved agricultural productivity, and increased grain imports. The need for higher levels of food imports can be balanced through increased exports of other goods if India is given greater access to developed markets through trade liberalisation.In addition, there is a need for research in production technology of non-cereal food. With regard to poor small producers, there is a need for improved access to technology, improvements in the quality of food items, and a reduction in transaction costs associated with market access.The author concludes that if cereal pricing is left to market forces, land will be released from rice and wheat cultivation to meet the growing demand for non-cereal crops, ultimately generating higher incomes in rural areas.
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