Croissance tunisienne et importations agricoles: une analyse longitudinale
2008
Wilhelm, Sabine
Among the different analyses carried out on the Tunisian agricultural liberalization, HOEKMAN, NG and OLARREAGA (2002) studied the evolution of agricultural imports. We intend to present a different study on the same topic, a longitudinal study using another measurement of liberalization. Our aim is to verify whether agricultural imports are linked to the economic growth. This topic has been of utmost importance since 2006, that is to say since Tunisia and the World Bank have started carrying out a program aiming at increasing the contribution of agriculture to economic growth. Our results show that the world price of agricultural produce gives a little explanation of agricultural imports, which relativises the results of studies on agricultural liberalization in Tunisia. If graphically, the Marrakech Agreement does not have any major effects on the evolution of agricultural imports and on the GDP, the calculation of average annual rates of growth shows a stronger increase of these variables in 1994-2004. However, to support a more intense growth, Tunisia should not rely on the fluctuations of variables whose object is to explain the value of agricultural imports.
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