Integration between cattle markets in the Sudan, 1980-2000
2006
Babiker, N.M., University of Gezira, Abuharaz (Sudan) , Faculty of Agirculture and Natural Resources, Dept. of Agricultural Economics | Bushara, M.O., University of Gezira, Wad Medani (Sudan) , Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Long and short run price relationships in Sudanese cattle markets were evaluated in a system of equations using Johansen co integration and error correction representation procedure with monthly real price data for the period January 1980 - December 2000. Empirical results suggest the existence of a unique long run or equilibrium relationship among cattle prices. The error correction terms were significant, confirming the exist¬ence of the long run relationship. A dummy variable capturing the effect of telecommunications improvements and liberalisation polices has emerged as important determinants of cattle prices function. This can be interpreted that, the telecommunications improvement and liberalization policy in Sudan improved the extent of price transmission across spat¬ially separated markets. The error correction models have also been found robust as they satisfy almost all relevant diagnostic tests. The short run and the causality results suggest the lead of Omdurman market, implying that the system is demand driven. The impulse response analy¬sis implied that, in any price shock in any particular area, markets in other areas will respond. However, as implied by the small magnitude of the error correction terms (0.06 - 0.16), the speed of prices adjustment is still low, which implies market liberalisation by itself cannot achieve a structural change in market integration unless more investments in mark¬eting infrastructure (transportation, communication, etc.) are undertaken
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]