Estimation of the future food gap for red meat in Egypt
2009
Abou-Saad, H.N.I.
Animal production represents an important component of the Egyptian Agricultural production, with value estimated of about L.E. 55 milliar, represents about 35.5% of the total value of agricultural production in 2007. The value of the red meat is the highest among other animal products. It estimated of about L.E. 22 milliar, with relative importance represents about 39% of the value of the animal production in 2007. The lower annually per capita of red meat consumption in Egypt compared with the world rates, consider the main research problem. This problem resulting from the deficit of the red meat production to cover the consumption necessities. This gape covered by the imports which lead to the deficit in the balance of payment. The research intends to estimate the maximum and minimum level of the gap between the domestic product and consumption of red meat in 2017 through applying the demand and production prediction models. The results show that the gap of red meat estimated in average of about 136 thousand ton over the period 1980 -- 2006 It ranges from a minimum of 61 thousand ton in year 1980 to maximum of 298 thousand ton in year 2006. The results show also that the future estimated gap in 2017 will range from a minimum of 84.6 thousand ton to maximum of 161 thousand ton. The research proposes number of priority actions for increasing the domestic production and self sufficiency of the red meat.
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