Vegetal species sensitive to global change in Northeast France
2001
Coudun , Christophe (INRA (France). UMR 1092 UMR INRA / ENGREF : Ressources forêt-bois : écosystèmes, croissance, qualité)
On the basis of a phytoecological database currently being investigated at the French Institute of Forestry, Agricultural and Environmental Engineering (ENGREF, Nancy, France), the main ecological factors that explain vegetation distribution in Northeast France were derived through principal components and correspondence analyses. More than 1,000 relevés were available with complete floristic, climatic and pedologic descriptions. Data such as concentrations of exchangeable cations (Ca, Mg, K, Al, H), hydromorphy, mean yearly temperature and C/N ratio were integrated in the computations. Distribution models and ecological indicator values (optima) were derived for 234 forest vegetal species, using a Kernel estimation method (non-parametric regression) and logistic regression. Multiple logistic regression was performed using the S-Plus statistical software package and four- and five-variable models are presented for each species. Finally, the potential effects of Global Change on the 100-year time scale were investigated for each of the 234 vegetal species. Different scenarios of Global Change (soil acidification and eutrophication, global warming) were run to see the influence of change in ecological conditions on the expected number of occurrences of each main species in Northeast France. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) were used for the determination of climatic variables and the spatial representation of the distribution of Lamium maculatum and Oxalis acetosella with regard to Global Change.
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