Assessment of flows in a glaciated region-Shigar river Basin, Pakistan
2014
Khan, S.A. (University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore (Pakistan). Civil Engineering Dept.) | Ashiq, M. (University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore (Pakistan). Civil Engineering Dept.) | Gabriel, H.F. (National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad (Pakistan). NUST Inst. of Civil Engineering/School of Civil and Environmental Engineering)
Glaciers are the product of nature and 68% of global fresh water is in the form of glaciers. The glacier melting rate has increased due to global warming and it has been estimated by the scientists that more than three quarters of the present day glaciers will disappear within the next fifty years. In the present study an attempt has been made to investigate the change in temperatures and its impact on flows of Shigar River which is located in the northern areas of Pakistan. An analysis of time series of temperature, precipitation and discharge data showed upward trend. A well known rainfall runoff, snow and glacier melt University of British Columbia Watershed Model (UBCWM) was used to simulate the flows at Shigar River. The inputs of UBCWM are the daily maximum/minimum temperature, precipitation and physiographic characteristics of the watershed. The glacier cover over the watershed was retrieved using MODIS Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectro Radiometer (MODIS) and found to be 2400 (km2). The well calibrated and validated UBC watershed model (1998, 2001 and 2002 respectively) was used for future flows prediction. The calibration and validation results were 94 and 91 percent for year 1998 and 2002 respectively. The mean annual maximum and minimum temperature trends were used to project next ten years. The projected results were then put in the model to determine the flows after ten years. The simulation showed 4 % increase in flows with respect to the validating year 2002 flows due to projected increase in temperatures and predicted flows of year 2012.
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