South East Europe Regular Economic Report, No. 5 : Slow Road to Recovery
2013
World Bank
The South East Europe (SEE6) region exited from recession in the first half of 2013, supported by a nascent recovery in the Euro area. Industry-especially manufacturing exports and energy drove the recovery. The region experienced a welcome surge in exports in 2013, particularly car exports from Serbia. Unemployment in the region, at about 24 percent on average, began to decline in the first half of 2013 from its peak crisis levels. While employment grew in Albania, FYR Macedonia and Montenegro, it remained depressed in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Unemployment in the region, at about 24 percent on average, began to decline in the first half of 2013 from its peak crisis levels. While employment grew in Albania, FYR Macedonia and Montenegro, it remained depressed in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. But even where employment has recovered meaningfully since 2010, the gains were not broad-based and mostly concentrated in services Near-term economic growth will be too weak to support substantial gains in employment. Weak domestic demand depressed imports in all countries but Serbia, where their rise was led by raw materials and parts used in export-oriented industries. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) remained sluggish in SEE6, rising only by 0.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), but its share of financing of the current account increased. Remittances continued to be resilient overall, but the Greek crisis began to take its toll, especially on Albania. Foreign banks' deleveraging from SEE6, rising Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) and weak credit growth underpinned the need for vigorous reforms to reduce vulnerabilities in the financial sector. European banks continued to deleverage and reduced their exposure to the SEE6 region. With the aim of improving their resilience and supervisory capacity, the SEE6 countries made some progress in implementing banking reforms over the past year.
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