Geographical Shift in Blooming Date of Kiwifruits in Jeju Island by Global Warming
2012
Kwon, Y.S., Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Republic of Korea | Kim, S.O., Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Republic of Korea | Seo, H.H., National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science, RDA, Suwon, Republic of Korea | Moon, K.H., National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science, RDA, Suwon, Republic of Korea | Yun, J.I., Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Republic of Korea
A kiwifruit cultivar 'Hayward' has been grown in Jeju Island where the current climate is suitable for growth and development of this crop. Prediction of the geographical shift in the phenology can help the kiwifruits growers to adapt to the local climate change in the future. Two phenology models (i.e., chill-day and DVS) were parameterized to estimate flowering date of kiwifruits 'Hayward' based on the data collected from field plots and chamber experiments in the southern coastal and island locations in South Korea. Spatio-temporally independent datasets were used to evaluate performance of the two models in predicting flowering date of 'Hayward'. Chill-day model showed better performance than DVS model (2.5 vs. 4.0 days in RMSE). Daily temperature data interpolated at a higher spatial resolution over Jeju Island were used to predict flowering dates of 'Hayward' in 2021-2100 under the A1B scenario. According to the model calculation under the future climate condition, the flowering of kiwifruits shall accelerate and the area with poor flowering might increase due to the warmer winter induced insufficient chilling. Optimal land area for growing 'Hayward' could increase for a while in the near future (2021-2030), whereas such areas could decrease to one half of the current areas by 2100. The geographic locations suitable for 'Hayward' cultivation would migrate from the current coastal area to the elevated mountain area by 250 m.
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